Codex reset signals

The three live inputs behind the reset-probability numbers on the home page. See /forecast-method/ for exact weights and decay.

X hints

Weight 55% · score 0/100 · as of

resolved

Resolved — a reset was recorded after this post.

Ladies and gentlemen... start... your... ENGINES. We are almost Tuesday and I promised a reset for Tuesday. Among some other things. See you soon.

OpenAI status

Weight 25% · score 0/100 · as of

Full status ledger →
minor

Codex GitHub Review and Pull Request Failures

none

Elevated error rates for Codex and ChatGPT Work

GitHub complaints

Weight 0% · score 0/100 · as of

Context only: a backtest found complaint volume doesn't lead resets, so it's weighted 0 in the forecast (why).

2026-09-08: 34 2026-09-09: 47 2026-09-10: 31 2026-09-11: 23 2026-09-12: 28 2026-09-13: 16 2026-09-14: 17 2026-09-15: 30 2026-09-16: 24 2026-09-17: 35 2026-09-18: 20 2026-09-19: 20 2026-09-20: 17 2026-09-21: 16

Frequently asked questions

What are these three signals?

Recent public hints about a reset, OpenAI's own status feed, and GitHub issue activity on openai/codex — the three inputs to the probability numbers on the home page. See /forecast-method/ for exact weights and decay.

Why is a signal showing 'stale'?

Each signal is only trusted for a limited window after it was last fetched; once too old, it's marked stale and decays toward zero influence rather than being silently dropped or held fixed.